Player Preview:Cedric Mullins
Analyzing the O's Center Fielder and Predicting What to Expect from him in 2023
Cedric had a pretty solid season last year compiling a .258/.318/.403 slash line which is good enough to be slightly above league average as his OPS+ was 104 and accumulated 3.8 WAR or 3.4WAR according to Fangraphs which is solid starter territory. The lefty, former switch hitter, will still be in his prime entering his age 28 season and is scheduled to earn 4.1 million for his first of three arbitration years this season. His 2022 season was a disappointment compared to his 21’ campaign where he was a 30/30 player, All-Star, Silver Slugger, and finished top 10 in MVP voting I think his performance going forward will be closer to 2022 than 2021, especially with the wall being moved back at OPACY, he still is one of the best players on the current Orioles roster and should be an everyday contributor to hopefully some championship teams for several more years.
Cedric was able to improve upon his 2021 campaign in the stolen base category putting up 34 steals compared to 30 the year prior and should improve on those numbers this season with the change of rules regarding pickoffs and the increased size of the bases. According to his stat cast numbers he is about league average in terms of average exit velocity(47th percentile), max exit velocity(54th percentile), and chase rate (45th percentile) but in a lot of other metrics he is below the 37th percentile which includes his hard hit percentage, xwOBA, xBA,xSLG, Barrel percentage, and walk rate. Where he is above average at the plate is with his K% and the Whiff rate at 64 and 63rd percentiles respectively and overall this does not bode well for his offensive numbers going forward but he has been able to string together two above-average offensive seasons. Where He brings a lot of value is with his speed which measures in the 80th percentile and his outfield jump measures in the 78th percentile both well above the major league average. Also, we know Cedric also excels with the glove compiling 19 outs above average during the past two seasons which ranks him in the 96th percentile or top 4% of all major leaguers which makes me wonder why he has not won a gold glove yet. Mullins's arm strength has seen an increase over the past few years as he now ranks in the 59th percentile according to statcast showing he must have added some muscle to his 5’8 175 pound frame.
Heading into 2023 he is locked in as the starting center fielder and should be penciled in at lead-off most games with his speed and defense being where he shines. Currently, ZiPS has him projected for a 4.1 WAR season putting up close to 30 stolen bases and 20 home runs slashing .261/.321/.423 which is very similar to what he put up last season. I would expect somewhere in the range of 40-50 stolen bases with the change in rules and somewhere between 15-20 home runs while providing exceptional defense and being probably league average or slightly above with the bat. Altogether he is a solid starter for the team probably performing just below all-star level putting up 3.5-4WAR and will probably be the third-best player in terms of war this season behind Adley and Gunnar and I will be excited to see him represent America in the World Baseball Classic.