Though he missed a good chunk of the season, only debuting May 21st, the former first-overall pick announced his presence with authority by leading the O’s in WAR and finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting here's what to expect from the man who is quickly becoming the face of the franchise. Adley just turned 25 years old (happy belated) and has a lot of baseball in front of him which should be great to watch and make every Orioles game that he is in exciting. Even though he missed several weeks at the beginning of the season it will be counted as he got a full year since he finished second in the rookie of the year voting per new CBA rules. Unless Rustchman qualifies for super two status he will have two years of being paid the minimum including this upcoming season before his three arbitration years. If I were the Orioles I would be looking to lock him into an extension as soon as possible with the player he lost to rookie of the year to Julio Rodriguez's contract being the framework and since the birds have no long-term contracts now would be the times the price will probably only increase.
Looking back at his stellar rookie campaign he slashed a .254/.362/.445 and his .806 OPS was the highest on the team which translates to a 128 OPS+ which means he was 28% better than the league average as a hitter which is phenomenal production from a catcher let alone a rookie. In terms of WRC+, he was 33% better than the league average at creating offense for his team overall he had a great rookie season and hopefully he can avoid the dreaded sophomore slump and lead the birds to the postseason. The are two areas for concern heading into his sophomore season the first is his average exit velocity and the hard-hit percentage being below average at the 31st percentile each but there is reason to be optimistic because his max exit velocity was in the 71st percentile and the low marks are probably him adjusting to Major League pitching. Despite the low exit velocity his expected wOBA was terrific measuring in the 79th percentile of all MLB hitters along with his expected Slugging percentage in the 60th percentile proving that despite the below-average exit velocity he still can be expected to perform above average with the bat. The second area of concern is his splits against lefties where he hit below .200(.173) and had an OPS of .552 compared to his .280 average and .889 OPS against righties. This is probably nothing but a small sample size because in 2021 he did perform better against lefties than righties but it will be something to watch. Where he stood out to me this past season is his batting eye with his strikeout percentage at the 69th percentile, whiff rate at the 88th percentile, and chase rate at the 82nd percentile of all major leaguers. In his first season in the show, his walk rate was one of the best in the league at the 96th percentile meaning he was in the top 4% of all major leaguers at getting the free pass which is remarkable for a rookie.
When it comes to his defense and base running he excelled in both areas as well. In terms of defensive WAR, he put up a 1.5 mark to go along with his 84th percentile pitch framing and 79th percentile pop time to second base. Adley has league average sprint speed measuring in the 47th percentile which for a catcher is pretty good. Overall he is a very good all-around player, though don’t expect him to steal many bases, even though he was a perfect 4 for 4 this past season.
When it comes to projecting his 2023 I would expect him to probably have an OPS in the range of .800-.850 while being 30-40% better than league average offensively but I would not be surprised if he hits the .900 or even the 1.000 ops mark as we all know what kind of talent he is. I would also expect about 15-20 homers in the now more pitcher-friendly Oriole Park in about 130 games split between catcher and DH. ZiPS has him projected for a .260/.360/.460 slash line and 18 homers in 135 games which I think is very realistic. His projected WAR according to that ZiPS projection is 5.8 which is solidly in All-Star territory which I would expect him to be as long as he can stay healthy and avoid the sophomore slump. This season will be his time to shine as he is penciled in as the starting catcher and will have every opportunity to prove he is that guy.